Methodology evaluation of innovative projects under risk and uncertainty

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Abstract

This article deals with problems connected with the assessment of innovative projects in the context of risk and uncertainty, topical issues of evaluation of innovative projects at the present stage of development of the Russian economy. By the example of the solution of the "crossing the river" is considering the possibility of using hierarchical models to address it. In what follows, and compares the priorities of different groups of factors are given by calculating the overall costs and benefits. The paper provides a rationale for combined use of four aspects: the beneficial aspects of the decision (the benefits and opportunities) and negative (costs and risks) that may lead to the decision in question.

Keywords

innovation projects; cognitive hierarchy model, the direct and inverse hierarchical model of risk analysis, the ratio of the priorities of the costs and benefits, the task of "crossing the river", the analytic hierarchy process, a three-level hierarchical structure of the "purpose - the criteria - alternatives", factors and benefits cost factors, evaluation of priorities in hierarchies and their interpretation, the structure BOCR.