Modeling structural dynamics in macroeconomic analysis
Toroptsev Evgeny Lvovich
DSc in Economics, Professor
Russia, North Caucasus Federal University
Marakhovsky Alexander Sergeevich
DSc in Economics, Associate Professor
Russia, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Pyatigorsk branch
This article explores the computing capability of competitive models of structural dynamics in macroeconomics. These models are formalized by systems of ordinary differential equations or their differential analogues with a discretization step of the calculated range of 1 year. Both models represent a dynamic input-output balance. Theoretically, these models are always considered equal when used in the numerical analysis of transients. Two research objectives have been achieved. Firstly, the advantage has been proved for differential equations regarding to the accuracy of the forecast obtained. Secondly, the fundamental limitations of differential analogues are shown in solving many problems concerning sustainability, economic dynamics, economic growth and their management based on the calculating indicators of the own, that is, internal, dynamic properties of the economy as a system. Such properties are calculated for dynamic input-output balances mathematically real-closed by consumption. The discussed models can be applied in macroeconomic analysis either independently or as part of larger computing systems represented by equilibrium or other agent-based models.
Modeling, structural dynamics, input-output balance, differential equations, calculation errors, economic growth
The article was prepared with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research. Grant № 20-010-00084А "Mathematical modeling of stability and macroeconomic dynamics".
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